debor015

As we head into September, the wrath of Ebola continues to devastate West Africa. Now over five months since this deadly virus infected its first victim, one wonders where we are in terms of combating the disease. Are infection rates beginning to plateau or are they continuing to rise? And if they are rising, how quickly? This week I decided to answer this question by plotting WHO Ebola data dating back to late March, when the virus first popped up in Guinea. What I found was startling. Not only are infection rates continuing to rise, but they are rising near exponentially. As are the death rates. These exponential curves are depicted in the graph below, with total cases depicted in blue and total deaths depicted in red. Using the equations of the respective lines, I also predicted the total cases and deaths each week through the end of September, depicted as light green points. At present, the cumulative death toll from Ebola in West Africa stands at 1,552 people, with 3,069 cases. It...

The death toll in West Africa has recently exceeded an astonishing 1,000 dead. Official numbers, updated as of this morning, amount to 2,127 cases and 1,145 deaths from Ebola. In terms of infected people, this exceeds the previous worst Ebola outbreak by a factor of 5! To follow up on my last blog, a science/ethics panel which convened last week on the issue of administering experimental medication to infected Ebola patients has concluded that such medication is ethical to use given the severity of the current outbreak, provided that certain criteria are met, such as transparency about care, informed consent, freedom of choice, etc. Further details about the meeting are scheduled for release tomorrow. When I look at the staggering disease statistics for Ebola and compare them with historic numbers, two things jump out at me. One, the frequency of major outbreaks has increased since the virus was first recognized in 1976. Maybe this is due to better reporting, or maybe not. That this ph...

Since my last blog, the World Health Organization (WHO) has reported 68 new cases and 29 new deaths from Ebola in West Africa, bringing the new total to 1,779 infected and 961 dead.  These numbers include suspected, probable, and confirmed cases alike. Given the magnitude of this crisis, the recently formed WHO Emergency Committee met for two days via teleconference this past week and unanimously decided that the present outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. Importantly, no registered medicines or vaccines currently exist to combat Ebola. This Monday, however, a WHO-organized panel of medical ethics experts will meet to discuss the prospect of using experimental treatments to quell the outbreak.    As for the title of this blog, while the ongoing Ebola outbreak continues to produce record-breaking numbers of infections, much talk has begun circulating as to the reasons for such a severe outbreak. Among the different hypotheses I’ve heard...

Since the CDC hasn't updated their website, I thought I'd provide you with the latest statistics relating to the Ebola outbreak, according to the WHO Regional Office for Africa.  Cases = 1,711 Deaths = 932 Case fatality rate = 54% This is madness! Check in soon for more updates. If you enjoyed this article, I encourage you to join my blog!  Simply click the “join this site” button  at the top right of the page, log in using your Yahoo, Google, or Twitter account, and click “follow  publicly.”  Thanks!!

          To those unaware, a deadly Ebola outbreak of historic proportions is ripping its way through West Africa as of this writing. Further history was made last Saturday when an American infected with Ebola virus was flown in an isolation chamber from Liberia to Atlanta’s Emory University Hospital to receive emergency treatment. This represented the first known Ebola patient to ever be treated on U.S. soil, something that has alarmed many Americans. This Tuesday, a second patient is due to arrive to the same hospital for treatment. In this blog, I will briefly outline the latest as it relates to this deadly Ebola outbreak. Additionally, I’ll provide insight as to what Ebola virus is and shed light on its background to help put the current situation in perspective. I am intending to follow and report on this outbreak periodically through a series of blogs. So stay tuned  for updates on the issue. About Ebola Virus           Endem...